預測2014

4 comments to 預測2014

• Rowena Siu

  January 17, 2014 at 4:49 pm

  人人手上没有水晶球,翻閱各大流年運程天書,人所共知事後孔明居多,大家心照不用多上心,有老朋友忠告我,求神問卜先問凶事,居安思危,盡早部署應變,其他喜慶吉事不用知亦不用細問,平日言談修行,做人處事態度,再加點兒運勢,隱約伏下往後日子好與壞,好事自然降臨。綜觀目前香港形勢,港人食老本多年,意識形態仍停留上世紀八九十年代,用金錢堆砌繁華,但物質豐盛背後卻是蒼白空洞,當遇上突如其來(其實積累已久没解決過)問題時,陣腳大亂,荒忙失寸,再加上「專業政客」及失德傳媒歪風歪理,人心思變已久,卻苦無對策,亦感舉步維艱。香港人需要自我裝備,壯大心志,虛懷若谷,接受所有挑戰及變化,社會凝聚集結正面能量去解決事情,非一面倒為反對而反對,事業有成的亦應盡力回饋社會,愛護環境,不鼓吹過度消費,香港新(下)一代才有新希望,共勉之!

• Peter Ko

  February 5, 2014 at 3:28 pm

  You have spotted the similar “pattern” suggested by guys like Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his Black Swan. History is shaped by unlikely events with unproportionally (thus unpredictably) huge impact. The change is nonlinear and is often a huge jump. They could not be predicted from past record or linear extrapolations of which. That’s what you said common sense or logical deductions from past experience does not work. What the story tells us is following the past success story usually does not work any more, or at least not in its old way. Taleb suggested people to build a (low cost) net to fish the positive Black Swan. But where are they? Following your own inner call?

• Yau Kwan Kiu

  February 6, 2014 at 2:07 am

  “就像一個象棋手，受規則所限，越是天才的象棋手，其實越能預測他的下一步。”
  “天才的一步就是在人人都能夠看到他怎樣走之後，來個突如其來的手勢。”
  <– this is way too simplistic. it seems the author doesn't watch chess at all.

  what chess players do 99% of the time are:
  1. improve your own position and chances
  2. make sure your opponent gets worse at the same time.
  3. keep up the pressure and wait for opponents to make mistakes or blunder

  the strokes of genius (double exclaimation marks) are much rarer than mistakes (?) or blunders (??)

• Eugene

  March 12, 2014 at 11:49 pm

  Will miss you!