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4 comments to 預測2014

  • Rowena Siu


  • Peter Ko

    You have spotted the similar “pattern” suggested by guys like Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his Black Swan. History is shaped by unlikely events with unproportionally (thus unpredictably) huge impact. The change is nonlinear and is often a huge jump. They could not be predicted from past record or linear extrapolations of which. That’s what you said common sense or logical deductions from past experience does not work. What the story tells us is following the past success story usually does not work any more, or at least not in its old way. Taleb suggested people to build a (low cost) net to fish the positive Black Swan. But where are they? Following your own inner call?

  • Yau Kwan Kiu

    <– this is way too simplistic. it seems the author doesn't watch chess at all.

    what chess players do 99% of the time are:
    1. improve your own position and chances
    2. make sure your opponent gets worse at the same time.
    3. keep up the pressure and wait for opponents to make mistakes or blunder

    the strokes of genius (double exclaimation marks) are much rarer than mistakes (?) or blunders (??)

  • Eugene

    Will miss you!

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